"Climate change projections for the Chesapeake Bay Region: Oracle or Debacle?"
Dr. Victoria Coles
Horn Point Laboratory, UMES
Monday, February 4, 2008
3:30 PM
Room 3200, Research Innovations Building I
Abstract
The IPCC fourth assessment model archive presents a rich data set for evaluating model projections of
twentieth century climate in the Chesapeake Bay region. Twenty model representations are evaluated against
temperature and precipitation data integrated to similar spatial and temporal scales. We evaluate individual
and mean model skill, to show that the average model is a better representation of climate than any individual
model. The model projections of various climate relevant quantities are considered for two possibilities; business
as usual versus best case emissions scenario. While the differences between model projections are primarily evident
at time scales greater than 50 years, they do project substantial climate changes as early as 2025.
Biography
Dr. Coles received a Ph.D. degree in Physical Oceanography from the University of Miami, after which she was a
post-doctoral researcher at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. She is now an Assistant Research Professor at the
University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory. Her research interests are in the
areas of observation and modeling of seasonal to climate scale variability in ocean circulation, biogeochemical
tracer and ecosystem cycling, and water mass ventilation.
Reception before seminar at 3:00 PM
Research Innovations Building I
Old Dominion University
Norfolk, VA 23529
757-683-5548
Last updated 2/6/2008.
This page is maintained by Gabriel Franke
Copyright Info: Old Dominion University 2008
