The advent of numerical weather prediction tropical cyclone (TC) models has demonstrably improved the forecasts of TCs over the last decades. Wheras TC tracks are determined mostly by their large-scale atmospheric environment, storm intensity is influenced to a greater degree by smaller-scale features in both the atmosphere and ocean. The factors that control the intensity of TCs are still poorly understood, leading to limited reliability in forecasts of TC intensity evolution. One of the most critical aspects affecting variability in TC intensity is air-sea interaction. I will discuss the progress in developing a physically based coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean framework for the next generation model tropical cyclone research and operational models as a route towards skillful prediction of TC intensity and structure.

I will present a new educational website: Hurricanes: Science and Society (www.hurricanescience.org) developed as part of an NSF grant and launced in October 2010. The website contains information tailored for middle school through undergraduate educators and students, the general public, and the media. This educational resource has been developed with the guidance and input from a panel of leading U.S. hurricane researchers and participation of U.S. formal and informal science educators. Hurricanes: Science and Society can play an important role in the effort to educate both students and adults about the science and impacts of hurricanes and the importance of pre-hurricane planning and mitigation.

Dr. Ginis received a M.S. in Mathematics from Kabardino-Balkarian State University and a Ph.D. in Geophysics from the Institute of Experimental Meteorology. Isaac Ginis' current research interests include structure, variability and dynamics of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, from small to large space and time scales. He is presently involved in developing coupled tropical cyclone-wave-ocean prediction systems for the Atlantic and Pacific basins to improve the predictive capabilities of the tropical cyclone operational models at the National Weather Service and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. Dr. Ginis teaches graduate courses on numerical methods for atmospheric and oceanic modeling.

Innovation Research Park Building I 4111 Monarch Way, 3rd Floor Old Dominion University Norfolk, VA 23508 757-683-4940