Global climate models (GCMs) provide the best estimates for assessing the potential changes to our climate on a global basis. However, GCMs have a coarse resolution and as such information from GCMs is of limited value at the primary production and catchment level. Decision-makers (such as local and state governments or businesses) cannot develop appropriate adaptive responses to the effects of climate change without locally relevant information. Regional responses require not just changes to mean climate but information derived from conceptual models (such as biophysical or hydrological models), agricultural indices (such as growing degree days) or knowledge of changes to the likelihood of extreme events on a regional scale. Such regionally detailed information is not available from GCMs.

The Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) project explores the impacts of rising grennhouse gases on Tasmanian climate, water catchments, extremes and agriculture. Climate Futures for Tasmania has undertaken a series of dynamical downscaling simulations using CSIRO's Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). These simulations provide high resolution (10 km) output over the Australian state of Tasmania. The simulations use as boundary conditons output from six GCMs and two SRES emission scenarios, giving a total of twelve runs. By modeling the atmosphere at a much finer scale than is possible using a couple GCM we can more accurately capture the processes that operate on Tasmania's weather/climate at the regional level and thus can more clearly answer the question of how Tasmania's climate will change in the future.

A review of the project and the results obtained will be presented in this talk.

Dr. Stuart Corney is a research scientist in the Antarctic Marine and Ecosystems program within the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre in Hobart, Australia. His current project is to investigate projected changes in foodwebs in the Eastern Antarctic by coupling a food web model (the Australian Antarctic Division's EPOC model) to an ocean model (ROMS). Prior to his current appointment Stuart spent 2.5 years at the Climate System Modeller for the Climate Futures for Tasmania Project at the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC. Stuart graduated with a Ph.D. in Mathematical Physics from the University of Tasmania and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research.

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