As Earth's climate changes, polar environments experience a disproportionate share of extreme shifts, notably including changes in temperature and ice. One such Antarctic environment, the Ross Sea, is of particular interest due to high annual primary production and very low impact from human activities, making it a natural ocean laboratory. Over the 21^st century, this region is expected to experience warming along with reduced summer sea ice concentrations and shallower mixed layers; however, there are few region-specific projections of how the phytoplankton may respond to these anticipated climatic changes. This study explored both current and future phytoplankton variability in the Ross Sea by analyzing high-resolution data from autonomous underwater gliders in conjunction with a one-dimensional, data-assimilative biogeochemical model. The outcomes of this synthetic approach are especially useful for informing our understanding of the links between regional physical and biological processes and exploring potential pathways of future change in this remote marine ecosystem.

Daniel Kaufman is a Ph.D. student in marine science at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary. His current research examines phytoplankton dynamics and climate-induced impacts in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, using gliders and biogeochemical modeling. He also contributes to an investigation of effects of anthropogenic watershed use on the Chesapeake Bay using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. He received his Bachelor's in physics from the University of Maryland, College Park, during which he researched data-driven predictability of transitions in dynamical systems.

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