El Yunque National Forest, situated in the Luquillo Mountains of northeast Puerto Rico, is home to a wide range of climate-sensitive ecosystems and forest types. In particular, these ecosystems are highly sensitive to changes in the hydroclimate, even on short time scales. This research downscales coarse-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) predictions from the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project to the local scale to better assess future drought and rainfall variability through the use of an artificial neural network approach. The results indicate a reduction in rainfall and increase in drought is expected, as soon as the mid-21st century. The results presented highlight the urgency necessary to adequately prepare for the impacts of climate change on the island.

Dr. Craig Ramseyer is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography at Virginia Tech. Dr. Ramseyer's primary area of research focuses on tropical rainfall, particularly in the Caribbean, and how climate change is likely to change drought and flooding. His other published research has examined weather impacts on football player mortality, climate change impacts on severe convective environments, and moisture impacts on Greenland ice melt. His publications have appeared in Climate Dynamics, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, International Journal of Climatology, and Science of the Total Environment.

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